I’m not going into complete details yet, but I’m a fan of the LRC. This is my first foray into weather blogging.
@mossgrowth tweeted yesterday “Still keeping an eye on this in the 11/11-11/15 Time Frame” and posted the following picture.
There is no specific date on the image and I have not looked too deeply into the model imagery since it is not reality yet, just guidance.
Update #1: Mike Hollingshead of Extreme Instability fame posted this model grab for Nov 11th.
Using the LRC hypothesis and cycle length from @osnw3, I calculated back 53, 51 & 47 days from the 11/11 to 11/15 range.
- Starting Date: Nov 11-Nov 15
- Back 53 Days: Sep 19-Sep 23
- Back 51 Days: Sep 21-Sep 25
- Back 47 Days: Sep 25-Sep 29
A candidate to match the forecasted storm (Nov 11-15) appeared during Sep 23-28. Click the image below to see the animation of the 6 day stretch of the Low on the 500 mb level. The Low appeared off of the coast of British Columbia, proceeding into Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, and then turned north into Montana.
Using the LRC hypothesis, I am looking at the following occurring with the later model outputs:
- Low will trend further West than currently indicated
- Low will track north into Montana & North Dakota after dipping into Utah & Colorado
- Update #1 Could it track further east through OK as the flow is stronger now?
Again, this is Trial Run #1 of using the LRC to predict a storm and I’m intrigued to see whether this verifies. If it does, sweet. If it doesn’t, oh well. If anything, this storm in the second full week of November will help nail down duration for the rest of the 2012-13 cycle.