The Hadens















 

Using the LRC to Predict Future WX (Trial Run #1)

I’m not going into complete details yet, but I’m a fan of the LRC. This is my first foray into weather blogging.

@mossgrowth tweeted yesterday “Still keeping an eye on this in the 11/11-11/15 Time Frame” and posted the following picture.

“Still keeping an eye on this in the 11/11-11/15 Time Frame”
500 mb level forecast

There is no specific date on the image and I have not looked too deeply into the model imagery since it is not reality yet, just guidance.

Update #1: Mike Hollingshead of Extreme Instability fame posted this model grab for Nov 11th.

November 11th GFS 500 mb

Using the LRC hypothesis and cycle length from @osnw3, I calculated back 53, 51 & 47 days from the 11/11 to 11/15 range.

  • Starting Date: Nov 11-Nov 15
  • Back 53 Days: Sep 19-Sep 23
  • Back 51 Days: Sep 21-Sep 25
  • Back 47 Days: Sep 25-Sep 29

A candidate to match the forecasted storm (Nov 11-15) appeared during Sep 23-28.  Click the image below to see the animation of the 6 day stretch of the Low on the 500 mb level. The Low appeared off of the coast of British Columbia, proceeding into Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, and then turned north into Montana.

Click to Animate (from NOAA) Sept 23-28, 2012
500 MB Chart (Reality)

Using the LRC hypothesis, I am looking at the following occurring with the later model outputs:

  • Low will trend further West than currently indicated
  • Low will track north into Montana & North Dakota after dipping into Utah & Colorado
  • Update #1 Could it track further east through OK as the flow is stronger now?

Again, this is Trial Run #1 of using the LRC to predict a storm and I’m intrigued to see whether this verifies.  If it does, sweet.  If it doesn’t, oh well.  If anything, this storm in the second full week of November will help nail down duration for the rest of the 2012-13 cycle.

http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/p/what-is-lezaks-recurring-cycle.html

http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/

Reflections and Summer Plans

Tomorrow is the last working day for the 2011-2012 school year and I will be ending my sixth year of teaching.  The year was mostly enjoyable, but for those who teach, you know how busy a teacher’s life is.  The end of the school year is always bittersweet for me as there are always those kids that you are glad to get rid of, but a majority of my kiddos are those that I will miss greatly.  I will always stand by the fact that education is about the kids.  I bet that ten years from now, most of my students won’t remember every single detail that I have taught, but they will remember that their character and work ethic will take them places.

For any student (past or present) that reads this: Thank YOU!  You make my job easy and definitely worth it.  I look forward to see what you will accomplish with your life!

Now onto our family’s future.  Over the summer we will have a fairly busy schedule and I wanted to share with you a glimpse of what we have in store:

  • Matt starts Federal Jury Duty on June 11th
  • Linsey graduates from her Family Practice Residency on June 29th
  • Trip to Disney World Mid-July
  • Linsey starts at Lincoln Family Medical Group in August

We are really excited to have Linsey done with Residency.  This has been a long road for our family and we are all looking forward to having Linsey all to ourselves for seven weeks.

I have a few goals that I would like to accomplish this summer:

  • Start running
  • Blog daily
  • Digitize all our movies
  • Learn to 3d model on a computer
  • Stain our deck

Let’s see what I can get done!

 

 

 

2001-2005 Concordia University Track and XC

We few, we happy few, we band of brothers; For he to-day that sheds his blood with me shall be my brother.

Hey Guys, a couple things as you go through this process:
1) Feel free to donate whatever you feel comfortable
2) This donates to my PayPal account and I will cut a card after we cut off the first set of donations at Midnight Central time on Monday
3) Please donate by PayPal account if you have one as PayPal does charge a small fee for donations by credit card:
2.9% + $0.30
Donate $10 add an extra $1
Donate $50 add an extra $1.75
Donate $100 add an extra $3.20
(Sorry, I don’t like that there are extra fees but this is the easiest and safest way to do this quickly)
4) The donate link is currently only working if you are on a non-mobile device

First round of donations will be cut off at Midnight CST 2/20/2011

Update at 7 pm CST 2/19/2011.  We have 12 donations for $810 so far.

Update at 2 pm CST 2/21/2011.  We have 26 donations for $1,575

Le Cupcake

I have an obsession.  It is with a cupcake.  I am really picky.

When I was pregnant with Adelyn, Matt and I were taking a weekend trip to Denver.  I thought it would be fun to try a cupcake place as they were on the rise and I had never been to one.  Ironically, I don’t really like cupcakes…but I didn’t want to miss out on the experience.  The place we happened to choose is called Happy Cakes.  (If you live in the Denver area, this should become a regular for you.) One of their cupcakes was featured as Martha Stewart’s top cupcakes.  We purchased two cupcakes and so my cupcake fascination began.

Maybe pregnancy had something to do with it…who knows.  Since that fateful day I have been on a quest to find a comparable cupcake where we live.  For much time I failed.  The cake to frosting ratio was off or the moisture factor was off or other various problems existed.  Until, I found Le Cupcake.  They started their business at the farmer’s market in the Hay Market.  They did this for two summers and then a couple months ago they opened their own store.  How exciting for me?! We have gotten to know the owner of this company by ordering cupcakes for special occasions. Such nice people!

I really want them to succeed as they really do have a great product and they are just nice people.  Matt ordered me a cupcake bouquet for Valentine’s day and it got all sorts of comments. I will post a picture if I can figure out how to do such a thing.  Either way…I highly recommend you check out this cupcake place.  I have done my research…trust me, you won’t be disappointed! Here is the link to their website:  http://www.lecupcakes.com/

Pet Peeve

Adelyn is sick again today with a fever of 102.  This has been going on since Sunday…ick.  She is starting antibiotics today, but we aren’t exactly sure what is going on…prayers would be appreciated! :)   However, because she has been home sick Matt and I have been splitting our time to be with her…which has allowed me to do some blogging.  Ah my first posts. Get excited!

Anyways: a pet peeve of mine is school lunches and how they are managed.  One of my friends posted an article about a lunch being taken from a preschooler for it not being nutritious enough.  The lunch included a turkey and cheese sandwich, fruit, and chips.  The lunch was taken and instead she was given chicken nuggets as that would balance out her meal.  Are you kidding me?!!?  I don’t really know what food group chicken nuggets would fall into as I they are very questionably made of any chicken.  It saddens me that the government runs programs that enforce stupidity like this.  French fries are considered a vegetable as well as tomato sauce and ketchup. Absolutely ridiculous!  And we wonder why Americans are obese.  Start them young my friends, start them young.

Now that I have started thinking about the things that irritate me…there may be many more posts, but I will spare you that for now.  Wow this blogging thing may be a good outlet! :)

Vaccinations

I get asked often about vaccinations.  The concern about vaccinations has gone down some since the guy who said they caused autism retracted his statements and his medical license was revoked.  Even with that there are still some concerns.  A friend posted this blog from another family practice physician and I thought it was worth sharing.  Of note, after much research and contemplation we decided to vaccinate on schedule both our girls.  It was a tough decision, but I feel very confident in our decision.  Here is the blog:

http://www.doctormommyblog.com/2012/02/vaccines-questions-and-answers.html?spref=fb

New Theme

We are currently trying out a new theme on the site! What do you think?  The goal here was to find something that was fun and colorful, but still looked like a presentable website.  We’ll see if this sticks around or not, but it’s at least something to try.

The Beautiful Earth

Blue Marble 2012

I love astronomy and science.  I think too many in this world live in ignorance of how beautiful creation is when we zoom far enough out to ignore sin and destruction that us humans have dealt to this earth.

Here and here are the links showing a 2012 version of the “Blue Marble” Earth that is most commonly seen as a background on Apple devices.  It was composed of several images from a new polar orbiting satellite called NPP.

Construction Zone

Please excuse the mess for the time being.  The Haden House is currently being configured and set up, and is thus a work in progress.  Changes will be happening on a nearly daily basis, so keep looking for what is happening.  Before too terribly long, you’ll be able to stay up to date with the news and interests of the Hadens.

Testing

Today begins the testing of a new endeavor, blogging!  Let’s see if this works.